2025 New Jersey Gubernatorial Primaries

Voters from both parties are set to choose their preferred candidate on June 10th to be their party’s representative in the November general election. The election is to replace incumbent term-limited Democratic governor Phil Murphy. 

On the Democratic side, there’s a crowded, ideologically varied field, with Mike Sherill, US Representative from NJ-10 leading in most polls, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, NJ-5 Congressmen Josh Gotthiemer all equally not far behind, and former State Senate President Steve Sweeney and NJEA President Sean Spiller a bit farther behind. 

A crowded field with each candidate polling a decent percentage of the voters, and a large amount of undecided voters, has resulted in a primary where the nomination is still up for grabs. 

As for the Republicans, an as crowded field, but a clear frontrunner, seems to be the case. 2021 Republican nominee, Jack Ciateralli, holds a comftorable lead in most polls, often times getting over 50% of the Republican base. Radio talk show host Bill Spadea gathers a decent portion of the remaining votes, although overcoming the name-recognized and the Trump endorsed Ciaterlelii seems difficult. 

Mario Kranjac, former mayor of Englewood Cliffs; Jon Bramnick, state senator from the 21st district; and Justin Barbera, a contractor, all consistently poll less than 10%. 

Although New Jersey has been a reliability Democratic in the past decades, with Obama, Clinton, and Biden winning the state by more than 14%, it has trended right ever since the election of Biden. The 2021 Gubernatorial race was closer than expected, with Governor Murphy only winning against Ciateralli by 3.2%. In 2024, the state shifted 10% points to the right and went to Harris by 6%. Every county shifted to the right, with heavily Hispanic areas experiencing the most drastic shift.

This shift in partisanship has made the New Jersey governor’s mansion a key target for Republicans nationwide. Although, special elections after 2024 elections show a political environment favorable towards Democrats. It will be interesting to observe both the outcome of the primaries and the general election in November in the context of New Jersey policy making and in preparation for the 2026 midterm elections.